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Pacific Arctic Observations Addressing Causes and Consequences of Sea Ice Loss
SuperUser Account

Pacific Arctic Observations Addressing Causes and Consequences of Sea Ice Loss

In 2015, NOAA’s Arctic Research Program competitively funded three new five-year projects involving $4.2 million in grants (and benefit from additional support by interagency and international partners). Through these three new projects, university partners will help to carry out multidisciplinary observations and research for five years (from 2015­ to 2020), in support of analysis, and modeling in the Pacific Arctic, i.e., the Chukchi ­Beaufort Sea, the East Siberian Sea, and the Arctic Ocean north of these regions. 

The Arctic Research Program supports several in situ observing networks critical to observing, understanding, and predicting the rapidly changing Arctic environment and characterizing the impacts of these changes to the Arctic environment and potential changes in mid-latitude weather: International Arctic Buoy Programme (IABP); Arctic Sea Ice Thickness Network; The Russian-American Long-term Census of the Arctic (RUSALCA) program; and International Arctic System for Observing the Atmosphere (IASOA).

In addition, the ARP supports the Distributed Biological Observatory (DBO) and is in the early stages of developing the Pacific Arctic Climate Ecosystem Observatory (CEO).   

The Arctic Research Program specifically requested proposals to: Continue the long-­term observations of the extended DBO (on both Russian and US sides of the Chukchi Sea) transect. During the next decade of RUSALCA the DBO will be extended westward further north where the Arctic has become even more ice-free. This is part of the Climate Observations Division priority to build a suite of repeat hydrography and ecosystem transects in the Arctic. These new observations will extend previous transects established in 2004 to­ 2012. Applicants were also encouraged to design new sets of sentinel stations and repeat transects that will be reoccupied during the award period and provide data harmonious with previously collected data.  It is anticipated that this work will be carried out with coordination of vessels from Pacific Arctic Group partner countries and other nations, if possible. 

Observations collected from these expeditions are expected to be assimilated to improve model­-based capabilities that address impacts of Pacific Arctic sea ice loss on the Pacific Arctic Ocean and its ecosystems and improve models that link long-­term sea ­ice reductions to impacts on the mid-­latitudes. 

The three new projects to be funded by the Arctic Research Program in 2015 are:

“Changes of heat and freshwater budgets in the East Siberian Sea and southern Makarov Basin contributing to multidisciplinary changes in the Pacific Arctic,” PI: Igor Polyakov, Co PI’s: Andrey Pnyushkov, Georgina Gibson, Robert Rember, Terry Whitledge, Dean Stockwell and Peter Winsor, all from the University of Alaska Fairbanks

“Changes of heat and freshwater budgets in the East Siberian Sea and southern Makarov Basin contributing to multidisciplinary changes in the Pacific Arctic,” PI: Matthew Alkire, University of Washington

“Coordination, Data Management and Enhancement of the International Arctic Buoy Programme,” PI: Ignatius Rigor, University of Washington

The Arctic Research Program is a program in the Climate Observation Division, Climate Program Office, within NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research that supports research to advance Arctic observations in the atmosphere, ice, ocean, and ecosystems. http://cpo.noaa.gov/ClimatePrograms and www.arctic.noaa.gov.

For a full list of CPO’s grants and awards for 2015, visit: http://cpo.noaa.gov/AboutCPO/AllNews/TabId/315/artmid/668/articleid/363879/CPO-Announces-FY15-Awards.aspx

 

NOAA’s Climate Program Office helps improve understanding of climate variability and change in order to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond. NOAA provides science, data, and information that Americans want and need to understand how climate conditions are changing. Without NOAA’s long-term climate observing, monitoring, research, and modeling capabilities we couldn’t quantify where and how climate conditions have changed, nor could we predict where and how they’re likely to change.

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HEAT FORECASTS

 

 

Current Temperature Probability Outlook

  • 6-10 Day
  • 8-14 Day
  • Month
  • Three Month Outlook
  • Weeks 3-4 Experimental Outlook Temperature Probability
 

6-10 Day Temperature Probability Outlook Map

 

6-10 Day Temperature Probability Outlook

In this map, shaded areas show where average temperature has an increased chance of being warmer or cooler than usual. The darker the shading, the greater the chance for the indicated condition. White areas have equal chances for average temperatures that are below, near, or above the long-term average for the month.

Learn More

 

8-14 Day Temperature Probability Outlook Map

 

8-14 Day Temperature Probability Outlook

In this map, shaded areas show where average temperature has an increased chance of being warmer or cooler than usual. The darker the shading, the greater the chance for the indicated condition. White areas have equal chances for average temperatures that are below, near, or above the long-term average for the month.

Learn More

 

One Month Temperature Probability Outlook

 

One Month Temperature Probability Outlook

In this map, shaded areas show where average temperature has an increased chance of being warmer or cooler than usual. The darker the shading, the greater the chance for the indicated condition. White areas have equal chances for average temperatures that are below, near, or above the long-term average for the month.

Learn More

 

Three Month Temperature Outlook

 

Three Month Temperature Outlook

In this map, shaded areas show where average temperature has an increased chance of being warmer or cooler than usual. The darker the shading, the greater the chance for the indicated condition. White areas have equal chances for average temperatures that are below, near, or above the long-term average for the month.

Learn More

 

Three Month Temperature Outlook

 

Weeks 3-4 Experimental Outlook Temperature Probability

In this experimental map, shaded areas show where average temperature has an increased chance of being warmer or cooler than usual. The darker the shading, the greater the chance for the indicated condition. White areas have equal chances for average temperatures that are below, near, or above the long-term average for the month.

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Current Heat Index Outlook

  • 8-14 Day Over 95°F
  • 8-14 Day Over 90°F for 2 Days
 

8-14 Day Over 95°F

 

8-14 Day Over 95°F

This map shows the probability that the Average Heat Index (which takes into consideration temperature and humidity) will exceed a given value over for at least 2 days in the forecast window.

 

8-14 Day Over 90°F for 2 Days

 

8-14 Day Over 90°F for 2 Days

This map shows the probability that the Average Heat Index (which takes into consideration temperature and humidity) will exceed a given value over for at least 2 days in the forecast window.

Global Tropical Hazards at Weeks 1 & 2

 

8-14 Day over 95°F

 

8-14 Day Over 95°F

This map shows global tropical hazards predicted by NOAA for the upcoming two week period. Orange and blue coloring indicates the level of confidence that above or below normal temperatures, respectively, will develop in the forecast window.

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UNDERSTANDING THE HEALTH RISK OF EXTREME HEAT

 

Health Outcomes

Exposure to extreme heat can have many direct effects on human health (heat stroke, reduced labor productivity), as well as indirect effects (promoting air pollution and increasing asthma attacks, overloading power grids requiring rolling blackouts). Negative health outcomes occur if an individual is exposed to the hazard and has not sufficiently adapted to reduce sensitivity.


Sensitivity

Sensitivity

Inherent characteristics of a person that make them vulnerable to heat, such as preexisting conditions, age, or occupation. To understand how to protect these groups, see Populations of Concern.

 

Adaptability

Adaptability

The ability of a person to take measures to reduce exposure and sensitivity - for example, avoiding outdoor activities during the day or wearing personal protective equipment (PPE) that is designed to mitigate heat buildup. When exposure is not preventable, adaptability can help reduce the impact of heat.

 

Exposure

Exposure

The extent to which an individual is exposed to extreme heat. Going outside on a hot, humid day and working in direct sunlight constitutes high exposure, while reducing exposure includes avoidance of these activities. Sometimes exposure is not preventable.

Climate conditions

Climate conditions

Climate conditions that create a heat hazard include direct sunlight, low winds, high humidity, and high temperatures. When these conditions exist, a heat hazard is created.

 

 

 

AT-RISK GROUPS

Higher summertime temperatures are linked to an increased risk of illnesses and death, particularly among certain groups. Select a group below to learn more.

 

Children

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Emergency Responders

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Older Adults

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Outdoor Workers

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Athletes

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Pets

Read More

 

 

 

 

 

HEAT WARNINGS IN YOUR AREA

View heat warnings in your area by state

 

 

 

STAYING SAFE DURING A HEAT WAVE

 

Key Safety Tips

  • Drink plenty of water; even if you do not feel thirsty. Avoid drinks with caffeine. Persons who have epilepsy or heart, kidney, or liver disease; are on fluid-restricted diets; or have a problem with fluid retention should consult a doctor before increasing liquid intake.
  • Never leave children or pets alone in closed vehicles.
  • Check on family, friends, and neighbors who do not have air conditioning and who spend much of their time alone.
  • Check on your animals frequently to ensure that they are not suffering from the heat.
  • Go to a designated public shelter if your home loses power during periods of extreme heat. Stay on the lowest floor out of the sunshine if air conditioning is not available.
  • Check the weather/listen to NOAA Weather Radio for critical updates from the National Weather Service (NWS).

 

 

Safety Tips If You Have To Go Outside

  • Avoid strenuous work during the warmest part of the day. Use a buddy system when working in extreme heat, and take frequent breaks.
  • Dress in loose-fitting, lightweight, and light-colored clothes that cover as much skin as possible. Avoid dark colors because they absorb the sun’s rays.
  • Protect face and head by wearing sunblock and a wide-brimmed hat.
  • Postpone outdoor games and activities.
  • Stay indoors as much as possible and limit exposure to the sun.

Additional Safety Tips

  • Eat well-balanced, light, and regular meals. Avoid using salt tablets unless directed to do so by a physician.
  • Limit intake of alcoholic beverages.
  • Avoid extreme temperature changes.
  • Consider spending the warmest part of the day in public buildings such as libraries, schools, movie theaters, shopping malls, and other community facilities. Circulating air can cool the body by increasing the perspiration rate of evaporation.
  • Download the FEMA App for heat advisories and safety tips.
  • Text SHELTER + your ZIP code to 43362 (4FEMA) to find the nearest shelter in your area (example: shelter 12345).

Safety Tips Before Extreme Heat Arrives

  • To begin preparing, you should build an emergency kit and make a family communications plan.
  • Know those in your neighborhood who are older, young, sick or overweight. They are more likely to become victims of excessive heat and may need help.
  • Be aware that people living in urban areas may be at greater risk from the effects of a prolonged heat wave than are people living in rural areas.
  • Get trained in first aid to learn how to treat heat-related emergencies.

Tips to Prepare Your Home

  • Install window air conditioners snugly; insulate if necessary.
  • Check air-conditioning ducts for proper insulation.
  • Install temporary window reflectors (for use between windows and drapes), such as aluminum foil-covered cardboard, to reflect heat back outside.
  • Weather-strip doors and sills to keep cool air in.
  • Cover windows that receive morning or afternoon sun with drapes, shades, awnings, or louvers. (Outdoor awnings or louvers can reduce the heat that enters a home by up to 80 percent.)
  • Keep storm windows up all year.

Heat Related Terms

Familiarize yourself with these terms to help identify an extreme heat hazard:

  • Heat Wave - Prolonged period of excessive heat, often combined with excessive humidity.
  • Heat Index - A number in degrees Fahrenheit (F) that tells how hot it feels when relative humidity is added to the air temperature. Exposure to full sunshine can increase the heat index by 15 degrees.
  • Heat Cramps - Muscular pains and spasms due to heavy exertion. Although heat cramps are the least severe, they are often the first signal that the body is having trouble with the heat.
  • Heat Exhaustion - Typically occurs when people exercise heavily or work in a hot, humid place where body fluids are lost through heavy sweating. Blood flow to the skin increases, causing blood flow to decrease to the vital organs. This results in a form of mild shock. If not treated, the victim's condition will worsen. Body temperature will keep rising and the victim may suffer heat stroke.
  • Heat Stroke - A life-threatening condition. The victim's temperature control system, which produces sweating to cool the body, stops working. The body temperature can rise so high that brain damage and death may result if the body is not cooled quickly.
  • Sun Stroke - Another term for heat stroke.
  • Excessive Heat Watch - Conditions are favorable for an excessive heat event to meet or exceed local Excessive Heat Warning criteria in the next 24 to 72 hours.
  • Excessive Heat Warning - Heat Index values are forecast to meet or exceed locally defined warning criteria for at least 2 days (daytime highs=105-110° Fahrenheit).
  • Heat Advisory - Heat Index values are forecast to meet locally defined advisory criteria for 1 to 2 days (daytime highs=100-105° Fahrenheit).

 

 


 

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NIHHIS is an integrated information system that builds understanding of the problem of extreme heat, defines demand for climate services that enhance societal resilience, develops science-based products and services from a sustained climate science research program, and improves capacity, communication, and societal understanding of the problem in order to reduce morbidity and mortality due to extreme heat.  NIHHIS is a jointly developed system by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

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